Economists from the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Russia found that some Lego sets can have higher than average returns compared to investments in gold, large stocks, bonds, and others. So now, you can now refer to this piece of information as a reason why you want that obscure Lego set.
“We are used to thinking that people buy such items as jewellery, antiques, or artworks as an investment. However, there are other options, such as collectable toys. Tens of thousands of deals are made on the secondary Lego market. Even taking into account the small prices of most sets, this is a huge market that is not well-known by traditional investors,” said Victoria Dobrynskaya, one of the study’s authors and Associate Professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences.
HSE economists analysed the price of 2,322 unopened Lego sets from 1987 to 2015, as well as the information about primary sales and online auction transactions. They found that the secondary market prices of retired Lego sets grow by 11% annually—which is faster than gold, stocks, and bonds.
Secondary market prices usually start to grow two or three years after a set is retired, but Lego sets show a “significant variation in returns” ranging from -50% to +600% annually. Prices of small and very big sets also grow faster than prices of medium-sized ones, probably because small sets often contain unique parts or figures, while big ones are produced in small quantities and are more attractive to adults.
The Lego sets that see the biggest growth in value are those related to famous buildings, movies, or holidays. The most expensive ones include the Millennium Falcon, Taj Mahal, Death Star II, and Imperial Star Destroyer. Another attractive category are the ones issues in limited editions or distributed at promotional events.
Lego sets could even grow in price even during the financial crisis in 2008. However, their prices are relatively low compared to art, antiques, cars, and other investments that richer people might get into, and they are only really worthwhile in the long-term. Additionally, you’d need to be “a true fan” of that particular set to analyse the market and make a bet on a set that might be worth a lot more someday.
A recently released Lego set that might be worth a lot in the future could be the Titanic set. It is 135cm long from bow to stern—which is 25cm more than the Lego Star Wars Imperial Star Destroyer, which was previously the record holder for the longest Lego set.
