Dr Noor Hisham: 10,000 daily COVID-19 cases by mid-March if infectivity rate increases to 1.2

After over 3 weeks of movement control order (MCO 2.0), Malaysia continues to record a high number of new COVID-19 cases which has hit over 5,000 for three consecutive days. According to Health Director-General Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah, Malaysia’s infectivity rate (R0 – R naught) as of 1st February 2021 is at 1.15 based on the SEIR model of COVID-19 daily observed and forecast cases.

With a forecast R0 value of 1.2, Malaysia is expected to hit 8,000 daily cases in the first week of March 2021. If the infectivity rate remains unchanged, we could see 10,000 new cases reported in a day in the following week.

The Ministry of Health has also released a breakdown of infectivity rate across various states in the country. Johor currently has the highest R0 value at 1.20, followed by Kuala Lumpur at 1.19, Selangor with 1.16, Terengganu at 1.13 and Sarawak at 1.11. Sabah, which was badly affected in the final quarter of 2020 is showing signs of positive recovery with an R0 value of 0.93.

There’s an urgent need to reduce the infectivity rate as the healthcare system is being overloaded. There are over 47,000 active cases that are receiving treatment with 327 patients currently in ICU and 145 requiring ventilators as per last update.

With no signs of slowing down, the government has declared another two-week extension for the MCO until 18th February 2021. The MCO 2.0 is applicable throughout Malaysia except for Sarawak. In total, Malaysia has recorded a total of 222,628 positive cases and 791 deaths as of yesterday.

The latest MCO extension overlaps with the Chinese New Year festival and interstate travel is still not allowed nationwide. The government plans to introduce tougher measures including harsher penalties for SOP violation.

[ SOURCE , IMAGE SOURCE ]